Poker Bluff Frequency
Ahh, bluffing in no-limit Texas hold’em…the most incorrectly used and down-right abused facet of most players’ poker game. We’re sorry if we’ve offended you 15 words into this guide, but we’re here to speak the truth. We aren’t here to make you feel like roses and rainbows; we’re here to help you build a stronger poker game.
Bluffing tends to be a lot more challenging than some people give it credit for. Knowing how to do it, when to do it, who to do it against, and why you’re doing it are all things you have to figure out and get to work together in perfect harmony if you want to pull off a successful bluff. Sure, you can get lucky with a random and mindless bluff from time to time, but for the most part, it’s basically like lighting money on fire.
The right bluffing frequency varies from street to street. As a rule of thumb, you can bluff more frequently on earlier streets because you can improve your hand therefore you have extra equity in addition to your fold equity – that is unless you’re drawing dead — which is impossible pre-flop, the only street where that is the case. Comparing Poker Bluff Frequency with Equity. Once you’ve figured out how often a poker bluff needs to work to be profitable, you need to compare the equity you’ve got in the hand in order to determine the overall EV of the play.
In this guide, we’re going to walk you through everything you’ve ever wanted to know about bluffing and then a whole lot more. If you listen to our tips, you’ll no longer be wildly bluffing with no rhyme or reason. You’ll be bluffing with expert calculation and running over the game-winning pots that you should never have.
Bluffs NEED to Tell a Story
While the strategy tips on this page aren’t necessarily in order of importance, this is easily the most important. We want to start with a story to help illustrate our point. This is a true story of a conversation that occurred between one of our staff writers and one of their students.
Student: I can’t believe this guy called me! He raised pre-flop, and I decided I was going to run a bluff on him because he had been opening way too many pots. I 3-bet him to 5x to try and get him to fold, and of course, he calls. The flop came out, and it was A – A – 5. He checked, and I bet 100% of the pot. The guy still called! The turn was a 9, and I went all in. THE GUY CALLED ME DOWN WITH 1010!!! How did he call me there? I clearly had a big ace.
Instructor: Well, what hand were you representing?
Student: I was representing that I had AK.
Instructor: Would you have 5x raised him pre-flop if you actually had AK?
Student: Well, no. I would have bet less to try and keep him in.
Instructor: Would you have bet 100% of the pot on the flop if you flopped three aces?
Student: Well, no. I would have bet less to try and keep him in the pot.
Instructor: Sooooo, you played a hand 100% differently than you would have with AK, but you wanted the other player to magically believe you had AK?
Student: …silence…
This story is beautiful because it illustrates one of the biggest flaws people have when it comes to bluffing. They think that the secret to a successful bluff is pushing more chips in the middle. They think that the bigger the call is, the harder it is going to be for their opponent to make. This may be true against a complete amateur but fails miserably when you try it against a thinking player.
Poker Bluff Frequency Chart
These oversized bets are actually going to make things easier on the other player to call you down. The problem that is illustrated is that the bluff did not tell an accurate story. Imagine if the student has only 3-bet to 3x pre-flop as they normally would with AK. Then, if they bet half the pot on the flop as they would with three aces, their opponent might still call. But, when they shoved all in or bet again on the turn, their opponent would be in a nasty spot. They could still make a hero call with the 10s, but most likely they’re going to fold.
Why are they going to fold? Because you told a perfect story. You told them you had AK and then did everything exactly the same as you would if you had AK.
Your bluffs HAVE to make sense. It might seem counterintuitive to bet less in some spots, but it actually works out better against thinking players. Now, you don’t want to go crazy and bet tiny amounts. If you bet 1/8th pot on the flop, and 1/8th on the turn and river in our example hand, you’re probably going to be getting called. You still need to put some pressure on your opponent, but the bet size should be within the range of what you would actually bet if you had the hand you were representing.
What’s the best way to do this? If you’re planning on representing a specific hand, imagine that you have that hand. Make all of your decisions pretending that you have that hand. If our student had pretended in their mind that they had AK, they would not have recklessly slammed chips in the middle with no rhyme or reason.
We wish we could come to where you are right now (in a non-creepy way, of course) and tell you just how important this is to a successful bluff. You can get away with wild bluffs from time to time, but that’s only because you’re lucky. You either are doing it against an opponent who doesn’t think, your opponent happened to have absolutely nothing, or you accidentally told a story you didn’t realize you were telling. Successful bluffs tell the right story at the right time.
Choosing the Right Time
So, we’re all on the same page now that our bluffs need to tell a story. But, that’s just the first piece of the bluffing puzzle. The next step will be choosing the right time to pull the trigger on a bluff. Are there times that are more profitable to bet? Are there times that you should look to avoid bluffing completely? Yup!
While there are a lot of factors including your image and your opponent that we will go into momentarily, we want to talk specifically about game conditions and which are better or worse for bluffing. The rule of thumb is that the more your opponent has at risk, the better the bluffing opportunity will be.
For example, let’s say it’s the first hand of the tournament and you all have hundreds of times the big blind. You have massive stacks. Is this a great time to bluff? Probably not because people have chips to throw around. An opponent can call you down incorrectly and only lose a small portion of their stack. What about late in the tournament when it’s right on the money bubble? Is this a great time to bluff? You bet it is. A lot of players will be tightening down and trying to squeak into the money. They’ll be so concerned about busting out and getting no money that you can rob them blind.
The buy-in of the tournament in relation to your opponent’s net worth also play a big role in choosing the right time to bluff. If you’re playing against a millionaire in a $10 tournament on the bubble, that’s probably not the greatest time to try and run a bluff. If you’re playing in a $10k against someone who won a satellite into the event, that may be a great time to bluff on the bubble.
While this may seem like common sense, you’d be shocked at how many people will just bluff because they “haven’t played a hand in a while” or “they haven’t bluffed in a while.” Please don’t be that guy or gal. Bluff in spots when the timing is for the bluff to work.
Choosing the Right Opponent
We touched briefly on this in the section above, but we wanted to dig deeper into this. While picking the right time to bluff is important, picking the right opponent to bluff against is even more important. If you don’t choose wisely, it doesn’t matter how great of a story you tell; you’re going to get picked off.
So, what makes an opponent a good candidate to bluff? They have to be bad, right? Not the case, actually. When you run a bluff, its success is contingent on your opponent believing the story you are telling. If your opponent is not a good hand reader or is too much of a novice to pay close attention to what you’re representing, then they’re never going to believe your story (because they won’t understand it).
A lot of novice poker players only pay attention to what they have. If they have a hand, they call. If they don’t have a hand, they fold. Trying to run over an opponent like this when they have a hand is suicide. They have to be good enough to make a fold. If they aren’t good enough to make a fold, then they will never fold. Yes, it sounds like we’re beating a dead horse, but people constantly try and bluff people who aren’t smart enough to fold a hand.
So if a bad player is not the right person to bluff, then it must be a really good player, right? Well, wrong again. Why would you try and bluff a great player unless you absolutely had to? This doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t ever try and bluff great players; it just means they should not be your prime targets. Personally, we only like to go after players like this if we don’t have another stream of income at the table. If we are picking up chips at the table without picking on the sharks, we’re ok with that. Don’t poke the bear, right?
So, if it’s not bad players and it’s not good players, then who is the prime target for running a bluff on? The answer is your middle of the pack players. These are the players who are good enough to make a fold, good enough to make a read on a hand they are playing, but not a wizard who can see through your soul.
You also need to make sure that you are only bluffing opponents who care about the game. The drunk guy that is calling everyone down? Please don’t try and bluff him. The rich guy who is playing low stakes for fun? Don’t try and bluff him. There is a reason that bluffs never work at play money tables. If the person does not care about losing the money or if there is no money to be lost, then the bluff has little chance of success. They’ll call you down in a heartbeat without ever thinking twice just to see what you have.
Check Your Image
The last piece of the puzzle here is analyzing your image before you go and run a bluff. If the table thinks that you’re playing crazy, it might not be the time to try and run a wild bluff. If the table thinks you’re super tight, you’re much more likely to get away with a bluff. Notice that we said if the table “thinks” you are playing crazy. This does not have to be you actually playing crazy.
Poker Bluff Frequency Range
For example, let’s say you get dealt three big hands in a row. You raise and win big pots without showdown. Are you playing crazy? Nope, but what does the table think? All they see is you winning a bunch of pots in a row and players LOVE to assume that you’re doing it by pushing everyone around. Even though you are playing snug as a rug, the table is going to assume that you are a maniac. This is ESPECIALLY true if you start a new session by winning a bunch of hands.
The egos in poker are so strong that people can’t stand ever to think they are getting bluffed or taken advantage of. Because of this, people will be more likely to call you down lightly if they think you might be pushing them around. We’ve had players that we’ve only played the stone nuts against assume that we were pushing them around. They refused to fold to us for the entire rest of the game.
Did we try and bluff them? Heck no! We waited until we had a hand and bet big and they paid us off every single time. Just remember, it’s all about your image and what the table thinks of you. Whether they are right or wrong is irrelevant. You could win no pots and some guy or gal at the table could make a comment that you look like a maniac. The rest of the table is going to hear that and assume that you are. You need to be aware of this stuff and react and adapt accordingly.
You should also be aware of what players at the table are paying attention. If a player makes the maniac comment, but someone isn’t paying attention, you have to assume that they haven’t passed judgment on you yet. If this sounds like a lot to pay attention to, that’s part of the game!
Pure Bluffs vs. Semi-Bluffs vs. Converted Bluffs vs. Merges
Now that you know how and when to bluff properly, you should just come out guns blazing with bluffs when you can, right? No, no, no. Bluffing is something that needs to be done in heavy moderation. You also need to realize that there are multiple kinds of bluffs that each should be done with differing levels of frequency. The four main types of bluffs are semi-bluffs, pure bluffs, converted bluffs, and merges.
A pure bluff is probably the one you think about when you hear bluff. It’s the hands when you hear about someone going full ham with 7-2 off and winning a huge pot. That is a pure bluff. There is no chance of that person winning the hand unless they get their bluff through. These bluffs are the ones done when the player’s hand does not connect with the board at all. They could have no cards for all they care.
A semi-bluff is one where you are bluffing with the chance to improve to the best hand. For example, let’s say that you flop a flush draw and elect to continuation bet. While you may not think of this as a bluff, it actually is. You’re betting and all you have most likely is a high card and maybe a pair. It’s not a pure bluff, though, because if you hit your card, you can improve to the best hand. This is the definition of a semi-bluff. A lot of people semi-bluff all day long and don’t even realize that they are actually bluffing.
Semi-bluffs can be less obvious in the form of backdoor draws. For example, if you have AKs on a 10-9-2s board, you may choose to continuation bet as a bluff. Some might think this is a pure bluff, but in fact, you do have some equity in the hand. If you turn a jack or a queen you have a straight draw, if you turn another spade, you have a flush draw, or if you hit one of your overcards, you may have the best hand. While this is still a bluff, it’s a semi-bluff because getting your opponent to fold is NOT your only way of winning the hand.
Converted bluffs are times when you miss your hand or miss your draw and elect to turn your hand into a bluff. For example, let’s say you flop a flush draw and you semi-bluff the flop and the turn, and then you miss the river. At this point, you have a decision to make. You can give up and abandon your semi-bluff, or you can convert your semi-bluff into a pure bluff and try and win the pot.
Merges are interesting. We weren’t really sure where to include them. A merge is a new poker term that came about in the past few years and has been argued back and forth whether or not it is real, or just something people say to cover up that they are not sure what they’re doing. A merge is when you bet a hand that could be the best hand but also could be getting a better hand to fold.
For example, let’s say you have third pair on a board where a flush missed on the river. If you decide to bet the river, you could have the best hand if your opponent missed their flush. You also could be bluffing and get an opponent to fold something like second pair. This is called merging.
Now that you understand all the different types of bluffs, which are the best and how often should you do them? Well, the answer is, of course, going to be that it depends. It will depend on the game, the situation, the opponents, your image, etc.
Here are a few general guidelines that you can use, though. Pure bluffs should be few and far between. Running a crazy bluff with no chance of winning any other way is pretty wild and usually is not a great recipe for success. If you do happen to run one of these, make sure it’s at the absolute most perfect time against the best candidate possible. Semi-bluffs, on the other hand, should frequently be used. They are great because your opponents will fold often, they don’t usually take a lot of money to commit to, and when you hit your hand, you’re going to have a much bigger pot to win.
Converted bluffs are going to always be on a case by case basis. You’ll need to weigh the risk versus the reward and most importantly your opponent’s range. If you think that you are more likely to get away with your bluff or that it is a profitable play, in the long run, you should pull the trigger. If you think the likelihood of success is low or it’s a negative expected value move in the long run, then you should probably lean towards not pulling the trigger.
Merging is something that is very widely debated and is strictly going to be a case by case situation. There will be times that it’s best to check and use your hand as a bluff catcher instead of merging and betting. There will also be times where there are plenty of hands that you can’t beat but will fold to a bet. In these situations, you’re going to want to merge your little heart out.
Finding the right balance of bluffing enough without bluffing too much is going to be a feel thing. It’s going to require you to constantly be vigilant of the game conditions and constantly assessing what you can and can’t get away with.
Getting Caught Is Good
Umm, getting caught while bluffing is good? If that’s the most insane thing you’ve ever heard, we’ll ask you to bear with us for a second so we can explain. What we are saying is that if you are never getting caught bluffing, then you aren’t bluffing near enough. You need to be bluffing with a high enough frequency that it doesn’t work 100% of the time. Basically, you need to be pushing the boundary as much as you can to make sure that you’re getting away with as much free money as you possibly can.
Imagine the analogy of driving a fast car as a race car driver. Let’s say you go 90 mph and you do pretty well in races. Well, is that the fastest you can go and the best you can do in your races? The only way you’ll know that is if you push the envelope a little faster. Maybe the next race you try going 95 mph. If everything goes smoothly, then you know you can go faster. You should keep pushing things faster and faster until your engine finally blows. Once you hit that point, you’ll know that you’ve found the max speed you can go.
You need to do the same with your bluffing. Find out how fast people will let you run away with their money without making them blow your engine.
Poker Bluff Frequency Calculator
Putting It All Together
Hopefully, by now you are pretty well versed in what you need to do to successfully bluff in no-limit Texas hold’em. While it may seem fun to bluff all the time, it’s definitely not part of a winning strategy. Controlled and calculated bluffs can work wonders, though. Just remember to make sure that you are doing them at the right time, against the right opponents, and with the right image. And for the love of everything on the Earth, promise us that you’ll make sure that your bluff tells a great story and makes sense.
How to Effectively Bluff in Poker – and How to Detect Your Opponent’s Bluffs
You can’t win in poker over the long run simply by showing down the best hand. For a start, if you always have a hand when you bet – your opponents would soon catch on and stop calling you. Bluffing is what makes poker strategy interesting. Done right, this can give you a huge edge in the games. On the other hand, if you indulge in poker bluffing too often, or in the wrong situations, it can get expensive very quickly.
This poker bluffing guide takes you through everything you need to know to become an effective bluffer. Here are the topics you will find covered below:
Poker Bluffing Guide – The Main Types of Bluff
#1 Continuation Bets
The most common type of bluff happens so frequently, that you might not even consider it to be poker bluffing. A player raises a hand before the flop, gets called by one or two opponents. On the flop, that same player makes another bet. This is usually between half and two-thirds of the pot. The other players fold, and the aggressor wins the chips.
This is known as a continuation bet – the raiser is simply continuing with their aggressive action. It is the most common bluff. While players raising pre-flop have a hand some of the time, they are likely to try and win the pot even if they missed (as long as the flop seems safe). Unpaired hands connect with the flop around 1/3rd of the time. If an opponent bets on 70% of flops – then there are a lot of continuation bet bluffs in their range!
A variation of this bluff is to check on the flop – and then if nobody shows interest in the pot to make a bet on the turn. This is known as the ‘delayed continuation bet’.
#2 Semi-Bluffing
Good players don’t bluff with ‘air’ too often, instead they choose spots where they have a reasonable chance of winning the pot even when they are called. This bluff + backup plan can happen with flush draws, straight draws or over-cards to the flop. A player might have a pair plus flush combination (and so may be betting with the best hand already against part of an opponent’s range).
Semi poker bluffing is profitable even when the two components (winning the pot right away or making a hand) are individually losing plays.
For example, if you expect your opponent to fold only 30% of the time, it might not be profitable to make a large bet at that point in the hand. When you add in your ‘outs’, the chance you will make a hand by the river – this can add significant equity. Those times you get called and make your straight (for example) have the advantage that you’ll have the potential to win a very big pot.
#3 Check-Raise Bluffing
If you suspect that an opponent bluffs too often, you can turn the tables with a strong play. Check raising is a power-move, and not common above the smallest stakes. This works well when opponent’s continuation bet too wide, or are likely to bet with any part of the board (middle pair and so on).
When you check-raise, you announce that you have a monster – forcing many of the hands opponents would continuation bet with to fold. By doing this as a bluff on some occasions, you will keep your own range balanced. If you only ever check-raise when you really have a monster, that would be far too easy to play against.
I would caution against using this move too often – especially if you are known for slow-playing your monster hands. If you do get caught, and your opponent reraises or calls, you should slow down on the betting. Hands capable of calling check raises are generally in the top part of your opponent’s range.
#4 The Squeeze Play
This bluff works before the flop and is a great way to trap opponents. When a loose player raises from early position, and two other players call, you can make a big 3-bet from later position. You know the initial bettor has a wide range. You also know that the other players had a chance to raise, and decided to call instead. This can mean a weaker than average range of hands – exactly the type which would give up when you show massive strength by 3-betting your button.
As with all bluffs, balance is the key. If you over use this, players will catch on, and start to trap you by calling with their premium hands. If you are called, you’ll usually need to continuation bet – and the pot could get large before you realise you are beaten.
#4 Pure / Air Bluffs
Novice players might think that the right way to bluff is simply to pile the pressure on opponents with huge bets – and to hope that they fold. Unless you are experienced at spotting scenarios where this might work, I’d recommend removing it from your range of bluffs completely. At the lowest levels, it is hard to get opponents to fold. If you miss a flush draw and bet big to win the pot, it can look exactly what it is – a desperate move!
There are some spots where a pure bluff can work. Examples include a scare card hitting the turn or river (an ace or king), or the later stages of a tournament where many players are trying to make the money and you have a big stack.
#5 The Post-Oak Bluff
The name of this bluff was popularised by WSOP winner Dan Harrington in his series of books on tournament poker. Compared to the concepts above, this bluff requires that your opponents are experienced enough to know what your river bet means.
When you have a hand which can’t win a showdown, you can bet small on the river. The idea is that you look as if you hold a monster hand, which is looking to get some extra value from your opponent. If they know what this bet means, they will foil your plan – folding and refusing to pay off you strong holding.
Beware of trying this bluff against novices, they have no idea of what a river value bet means, and will call you down with just about any hand.
Poker Bluffing Strategy: The Importance of Position
The best time to make any type of poker bluff, is when you act last in the betting. This applies to all poker formats.
Acting last will give you time to see whether any of your opponents like the flop enough to bet out before you act. If there is a raise and re-raise before you act, then you might want to reconsider whether this is a good spot to bluff at all.
There are some bluffs which work when out of position. For example, many players raise the button with a wide range when folded to, and will continuation bet bluff on most boards. If you are in the big blind, a timely check-raise bluff could win you a small to mid-sized pot.
Semi-bluffing works especially well when last to act. For example, you bet the pot with a flush draw when checked to – and end up getting called. The turn brings no help and you feel that your tight opponent probably has a strong hand. When you are checked to again after the turn, you can check behind, giving yourself a free card. You might even induce your opponent to bluff on the river by showing weakness after the turn.
Poker Bluffing Strategy: Using Flop Texture
Before you decide whether to run a bluff, decide whether the flop is likely to have helped your hand or your opponent’s hands more. For example, players raising from early position often have strong pairs and hands like Ace-King or similar. A low, coordinated flop like 5-6-8 is less likely to have connected strongly with the range of an early position raiser. In fact, this flop is exactly the type which would connect better with the range of someone that flatted the raise in later position. A bluff from the raiser might work, though if someone called, there is a stronger likelihood you are beaten.
Flops can either be coordinated (with straight draws and flush draws available), or dry (with unsuited cards many ranks apart). Coordinated flops, for example 8-10-J with 2 diamonds, do not make good bluffing candidates when you missed – especially into multiple opponents. You’ll get called with pairs, flush draws, straight draws and even unlikely 2-pair combinations. The trouble is, you’ll never know which turn cards helped which opponent! Dry boards like 2-7-Q are far less likely to connect with people’s calling hand. Here, a timely half-pot bet can often win the money.
Poker Bluffing Strategy: Stack Depth, Bet Sizing and Bluffs
How many chips both you and your opponents have in your stack make a big difference when it comes to bluff frequency. This applies to spots where you are deep (have a lot of big blinds) and to when one or more players has very few blinds left in their stack.
Tournaments have the biggest variation in chip stacks. You can often find that effective stacks are short in the later stages. The risk here is that if your bluff gets called (or raised), you can find yourself priced in to calling bets – due to the huge size of the pot compared to the remaining chips.
With deep stacked situations, opponents will often call one street (called ‘floating’), simply to see whether you will bet again on the turn. If you give up by checking, they will run a bluff on you – taking away the pot you previously tried to steal. This play is not possible with shallow stacks, the risks are as high as the rewards.
The ideal bet size for a continuation bet or semi bluff will depend on the number of opponents you face, the flop texture and your known tendencies (table image). A continuation bet of half the pot only needs to win 25% of the time to break even, if your opponents fold more than this, you’ll be instantly profitable. Remember to make sure that you do not bluff with one bet size and bet for value with a different one. Observant opponents are on the look out for exactly this type is tell and will be ruthless in exploiting it.
Bluffing Against Different Types of Opponents
Poker games attract a wide range of styles and experience levels. Here are some guidelines for poker bluffing against different types of opponent:
- The Calling Station: This tag is given to players that hate to fold, they will call down with any piece of the board, or any draw – folding only when they fail to make a hand. Avoid poker bluffing with this type of player, instead switch to value betting your good / made hands.
- Fit or Fold: Many small stakes poker players will enter pots with a wide range of hands before the flop, only to fold to any bet on the flop when they don’t connect with the board. When this player starts betting, you need a good hand to continue, otherwise, bluff frequently.
- Table Captain: Aggressive players that like to use their chips to push players off of hands are not good bluffing candidates while the pot is small. Let them bet into you with strong hands instead. When you suspect they have nothing, a well timed (and large) river bluff can be very profitable indeed.
- Self-Proclaimed Expert: If you meet a player that likes to show off their poker strategy knowledge (even in micro-stakes), then small river bluffs can often work well. They will be so busy congratulating themselves for spotting your monster hand value-bet, that they may never even consider that you are bluffing at all.
Bluffing in Different Poker Formats
So far, I have explained bluffing in the context of regular cash games. Poker comes in many formats, and tournaments have a lot of spots where you can effectively bluff opponents in particular.
Stack sizes are key to picking bluff spots in tournament poker. Try to avoid bluffing players with very deep stacks, and those with small stacks (who might well be desperate). Instead, choose players in the comfort-zone, and steal their chips instead. Mid-stacked players will have enough chips to comfortably fold – and are less likely to want to risk them to make a hero-call.
When the bubble of a tournament comes up, a lot of players will be looking to fold into the money. This is the perfect time to get super-aggressive, stealing pots with bluffs as many times as your opponents will let you. A similar spot comes up when the final table is close.
Sit N Go tournaments have bubbles where players go all-in almost every hand. The math behind these games drives this strategy. While these look like bluffs, the super-narrow range of hands which players can (rationally at least) call with make this strategy sound.
Wrapping Up: Poker Bluffing Guide
Without bluffs, poker would not have anything like the rich strategy that it enjoys today. Any player that never bluffs (or does so extremely rarely) is super-easy to beat.
There are many types of bluff, with the semi-bluff and continuation bet the most common types. The best time to bluff is against a single opponent, in position with some backup (outs) in case you get called. Depending on the experience level of your opponent, there are many more poker bluffing moves you can add into your range.